Pork market monitoring

Ukraine

With the arrival of autumn slaughter pig prices usually begin to decrease. The growing supply from private enterprises is the main reason for that. That is the main factor that determines the market oversupply.

Unlike the last year the seasonal trend for pork prices decrease is not so dramatic this year. Last year the price in October decreased by 10-11% in the comparison with September (the price for meat pigs decreased by 9%, the price for bacon pigs decreased by 13% ). This year the price for meat pigs decreased by 3%, the price for bacon pigs decreased less than by 1%

It should also be noted that pig prices didn’t fluctuate  as much as last year  and didn’t follow the trends of  previous years(graph.1and 2).  The biggest  leap in prices  was in April,  but they stabilized  the following  month. The record volume of import was the main factor that restricted acute price fluctuations. It was imported 83 thousand tons of pork during 9 month of 2010; it was imported 61.8 83 thousand tons of pork during 9 month of 2011 and it was imported 237.6 thousand tons of pork during 9 month of the current year.

Graph 1. The dynamics of price for meat type pigs in live weight (according to the date of Dykun Global Consult)

Graph. 2.  The dynamics of price for bacon type pigs in live weight (according to the date of Dykun Global Consult)

The slaughter pigs’ prices continue to decrease in the beginning of November.  Besides the seasonal trends, the slaughter pigs market was influenced by the increase of meat products part from the companies which were banned to import meat products to Russia. As a result of more competitive prices for finished products the other processors are forced to decrease prices for their products. The only possible way to decrease finished products price is to decrease pigs’ prices. The increase of pork prices is expected in the second decade of December. The processors usually increase purchases of pigs before New Year and Christmas holidays.